Following a strong year of growth, what lies ahead for the global automotive-grade urea market in 2019 and beyond?

By Will Talbot, Analyst at Integer Research, An Argus Media Company

The past year has been one of contrasts for the global automotive-grade urea (AGU) markets. The introduction of tighter emissions standards in key developing markets has strongly contributed to AGU consumption growth in those regions, whereas in Europe and North America, greater pressure on diesel engines has intensified uncertainty about the future of AdBlue/DEF.

We estimate global AGU demand grew to 3.3 million tonnes in 2018, up by 24% compared to 2017. This is not a case of rising demand in developing markets propping up decline in established ones: in absolute terms, consumption growth was driven by Europe and North America, where volumes in 2018 rose by around 15% year-on-year. The reason for this is that new heavy-duty trucks remain almost entirely powered by diesel, and stringent NOx limits in Europe and North America mean nearly all of them are equipped with SCR.

Growth has also been noted in major maturing markets, where the introduction of emission standards driving the use of SCR was more recent than in Europe or North America. AGU demand in India and China has risen at steep rates this year, and the upcoming Euro VI-equivalent standards planned for 2020/2021 in both countries will expand the number of truck models with SCR. We forecast that AGU demand will soar to 650,000 tonnes in India and 1.8 million tonnes in China by 2028.

But challenges regarding the future of diesel engines became more evident last year. In Europe, a phase-out of diesel light vehicles by 2040 is still on the table, and the ambitious CO2 targets for trucks recently voted by the European Parliament will push manufacturers to invest in hybrid and electric models. In North America, ultra-low NOx?

Standards for commercial vehicles, in the pipeline for California in 2024 and at a federal level in 2027 will also encourage electrification in the on-road sector, or at least the use of alternative NOx abatement technologies that would reduce DEF consumption compared to today’s trucks.

These upcoming standards conflict with current technologies and customer preferences. Efforts to electrify the fleet have not yet been commercially viable and switching to gasoline has only been successful for lighter trucks. As a result, we expect long-haul trucks to remain diesel-powered and relying on AdBlue/DEF for the foreseeable future.

Other markets – several Asia Pacific and Latin American countries, Russia, Turkey – also had increases in AGU consumption in 2018. The market is now truly global, with changes in AGU trade having repercussions around the world. This was evident throughout the year, but particularly in Q4. Chinese urea prices had risen sharply in Q4 2017 – Q1 2018 and remained high throughout the year. Urea production has also been severely limited in Brazil during 2018, with the country now dependent on imports, with most AGU coming from Russia.

With such changeable markets, rigorous and thorough analysis is crucial, as is access to the most up-to-date information. Therefore, we update our Global Automotive Grade Urea Forecast Service quarterly. This report informs the reader about AGU supply, demand, trade and pricing to reflect the consequences these dynamics have on the production of AGU and AUS 32 worldwide. Subscribers gain invaluable insights into the competitive landscape and can put the report to practical use to find alternative sources of high quality AGU at lower prices. To see a typical table of contents from the report, click here

If you have any questions about the global AGU market, or to find out more about The Global Automotive Grade Urea Forecast Service, email publications@integer-research.com and a member of the team will be in touch.

More background on AGU…

OEMs have been using Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) aftertreatment systems to meet NOx standards since the implementation of Euro IV in Europe and EPA 2010 in North America. Over the years, more and more countries have enforced emissions standards stringent enough to require the use of SCR systems, so it comes as no surprise that global SCR sales are expected to rise over the next ten years.

SCR technology requires AUS 32 to operate and therefore the demand for AUS 32 rises as SCR adoption becomes more widespread. Also known as AdBlue®, DEF or ARLA 32 – AUS 32 is an aqueous solution that is produced by mixing automotive grade urea (AGU) and deionized water to a urea concentration of 32.5wt%. It’s a high-quality urea solution defined by ISO 22241-1.

As more AUS 32 is required in line with increased SCR use, the spotlight lands firmly on the AGU market, the production of which is relied upon to meet rising AUS 32 demand.

 

 

 

 

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Brazil going ahead with Euro VI standards in 2022 – but is the country ready for this change?

(Versão em português abaixo)

Last week, the Brazilian Ministry of Environment approved Euro VI-equivalent standards for commercial vehicles, called PROCONVE P8. These standards will be implemented by 1st Jan 2022 for new models and 1st Jan 2023 for all registrations of heavy-duty commercial vehicles, amending the initial proposal which included an early introduction for public buses. However, the government will allow for voluntary certification ahead of these dates, so it is possible that Euro VI-compliant vehicles will enter the market earlier than 2022.

Legislation details

The headline figure is the effort to impose Euro VI level emission norms, limiting NOx to 0.4 g/kWh and PM at 0.01 g/kWh. The use of SCR aftertreatment, already widespread in Brazil, will now be required to ensure that vehicles can be approved to meet these tighter limits. The 2022 implementation date provides a four-year lead time to the industry, ensuring that its emission strategies can be effectively implemented.

PROCONVE P-8 will also introduce WHTC/WTSC/WNTE test cycles, along with OBD and ISC requirements. OCE (WNTE) and ISC test cycles will limit NOx to 0.6g/kWh and 0.69g/kWh respectively. Durability requirements ranging from 160,000 km/5 years to 700,000 km/7 years depending on GVW, as in the EU standards, will also be put in place to ensure that engines comply with the emissions limits across their typical useful life period.

Market surveillance

Article 12 is an important addition to the regulation, as it requires additional testing (under a “broad range of engine and ambient operating conditions encountered during normal in-use vehicle operation” (as cited in Annex 10 of UN R48 series 6)) to prohibit defeat devices that have been a significant issue in Brazil. Defeat devices can reduce costs on ARLA 32 (AUS 32) for operators, but have a serious knock-on effect for tailpipe emissions, which end up well above standards. Testing vehicles during in-use operation is encouraging, but in-market monitoring will be essential. Brazilian’s Federal Highway Police has been expanding its roadside inspection activities, but it is virtually impossible to survey the entire truck fleet, and therefore education will keep playing an important role.

Fuel

The P8 standard follows on from an earlier announcement by the National Council for Energy Policies to boost the country’s biodiesel blend to 15% by 2023, with a gradual 1% annual increase. We covered some of these concerns in a recent blog post, although this was written with a B10 blend in mind. Testing for higher biodiesel blends is currently being conducted with a report due in early 2019.

Market

The truck segment is currently experiencing significant growth, with sales 57% higher this October than in the same month of 2017. These figures point to an optimistic revival in Brazil’s heavy-duty commercial vehicle market. The chart below shows HD commercial vehicle sales since July 2017. Increased sales and production of vehicles, alongside tighter emission standards, will lead to a boom for the emission control market, which is expected to continue to grow globally as more countries adopt Euro VI equivalent standards. The introduction of additional monitoring and testing in the market will also lead to the introduction of PEMS equipment and real-world based testing.

Event

Integer Emissions Summit & ARLA 32 Forum Brazil 2019 is a leading forum to discuss all the topics covered in this article. We are honoured to welcome speakers from the Brazilian government, Federal Highway Police vehicle, engine and emissions control manufacturers, and key stakeholders from the ARLA 32 industry.

 

Brasil avança com os padrões Euro VI em 2022, mas o país está pronto para essa mudança?

No dia 21 de novembro, o ministro brasileiro do Meio Ambiente aprovou normas equivalentes ao Euro VI para veículos comerciais, chamadas de PROCONVE P8. Essas normas serão implementadas em 1º de janeiro de 2022 para novos veículos e em 1º de janeiro de 2023 para todos os registros de veículos comerciais pesados, alterando a proposta inicial, que incluía uma introdução antecipada para ônibus públicos. No entanto, o governo permitirá a certificação voluntária antes dessas datas, portanto é possível que veículos em conformidade com o Euro VI entrem no mercado antes de 2022.

Detalhes da legislação

O maior destaque da regulamentação é o esforço de impor as normas de emissão no mesmo nível do Euro VI, limitando a emissão de NOx a 0,4 g/kWh e de MP a 0,01 g/kWh. O uso de pós-tratamento SCR, já muito difundido no Brasil, agora será obrigatório, a fim de garantir que os veículos sejam aprovados quanto ao cumprimento desses limites mais restritos. A data de implementação em 2022 fornece um período de quatro anos de preparação para o setor, visando assegurar que suas estratégias de emissão possam ser implementadas com eficácia.

O PROCONVE P8 também introduzirá os ciclos de ensaio WHTC, WTSC e WNTE, além dos requisitos de OBD e ISC. Os ciclos de ensaio OCE (WNTE) e ISC limitarão as emissões de NOx a 0,6 g/kWh e 0,69 g/kWh respectivamente. Também serão implantados requisitos de durabilidade, que variam de 160.000 km/5 anos a 700.000 km/7 anos, dependendo do PBT, como acontece nas normas da UE, para assegurar que os motores obedeçam aos limites de emissões durante a vida útil normal.

Fiscalização do mercado

O artigo 12 é um importante acréscimo à regulamentação, pois exige testes adicionais (em uma “ampla gama de condições operacionais do motor e ambientais encontradas durante a operação normal do veículo”, como citado no Anexo 10 do regulamento UN R48 série 6) a fim de proibir dispositivos manipuladores, que têm sido um problema significativo no Brasil. Os dispositivos manipuladores podem reduzir os custos com ARLA 32 (AUS 32) para os operadores, mas têm um grave efeito em cadeia para as emissões de gases de escapamento, que terminam ficando bem acima dos padrões. Testar veículos em operação é animador, mas o monitoramento do mercado será essencial. A Polícia Rodoviária Federal do Brasil tem ampliado suas atividades de inspeção nas estradas, mas é praticamente impossível investigar a frota inteira de caminhões, portanto, a conscientização continuará tendo um papel importante.

Combustível

O padrão P8 vem depois de um anúncio do Conselho Nacional de Política Energética que visa aumentar a mistura de biodiesel para 15% em 2023, com um crescimento anual gradual de 1%. Abordamos algumas dessas preocupações em um post de blog recente, embora ele tenha sido escrito com a mistura B10 em mente. Testes de misturas maiores de biodiesel estão sendo realizados, com um relatório previsto para o início de 2019.

Mercado

O segmento de caminhões está passando por um crescimento significativo, com vendas 57% maiores no mês de outubro em comparação ao mesmo mês de 2017. Esses números apontam para um ressurgimento otimista do mercado de veículos comerciais pesados no Brasil. O gráfico abaixo mostra as vendas de veículos comerciais pesados desde julho de 2017. A maior venda e produção de veículos, junto com normas de emissões mais restritas, levará a um boom no mercado de controle de emissões, previsto para continuar crescendo no mundo todo, à medida que mais países adotem normas equivalentes ao Euro VI. A introdução de monitoramento e testes adicionais no mercado também levará ao lançamento de equipamentos PEMS e testes baseados no mundo real.

Evento

O Integer Emissions Summit & ARLA 32 Fórum Brasil 2019 será um importante fórum para discutir todos os tópicos abordados neste artigo. Receberemos palestrantes do governo brasileiro, da Polícia Rodoviária Federal, de fabricantes de veículos, motores e dispositivos de controle de emissões, além de importantes partes interessadas do setor de ARLA 32.

 

The road to electrification – will India’s government overtake those in the West?

By Ben Fielden, Senior Conference Manager at Integer Research

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Outside Europe, India is one of the few countries in the world with a high penetration of diesel engines on passenger cars. After the VW scandal in the US, and all the bad press in the recent years, the global trend has been a decline in diesel fuel sales. In Europe, diesel penetration was over 50% in 2014, and has already dropped to 36% in the first half of 2018. The expectation in Europe is for the share to become as low as 20-25% by 2025. In India, diesel car share dropped from nearly 50% in 2012/13, to 23% in 2017, primarily due to increase in diesel prices after end of subsidies, and with the gap between gasoline and diesel fuel dropping quite significantly.  Gasoline vehicles have largely filled this gap; however, the Indian government are keen for the market share of hybrid/electric vehicles to grow.

In 2017, former Power Minister Piyush Goyal announced the aspiration to not sell a single petrol or diesel car in the country in light vehicles – 2/3 wheelers and passenger cars – by 2030, with the government supporting the automotive industry to develop cost efficient cars. Since this proclamation there has been a lack of policy to support the goal but the idea has captured the attention of the Indian automotive industry. Yet, we hear that many are adopting a wait-and-see approach before committing to serious investments.

The e-mobility session at the recent Integer conference in New Delhi was an important area for dialogue given the interest we are seeing in electric vehicles. To ensure the topic was well covered, we invited speakers from the government; NGOs; passenger car, heavy-duty, and off-highway manufacturers; research institutes, and various other aspects of the supply chain thus giving a broad overview of the current issues in the market.

Dr Kumar, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Government of India covered electric buses, a method of transport that is at the forefront of advancing electric vehicle penetration, and discussed government policies to support its adoption. Abhilash Savidhan of Tata Motors explored the potential transition away from traditional fuels in the passenger car segment. He cited an estimation that while electric vehicles currently have a 37% higher cost of ownership (for private use), after the introduction of BS VI, the cost will only be 14% higher for private vehicles and would result in a 4% saving for commercial use. Once such economic savings can be realised then the market may begin to shift away from petrol/diesel. Finally, Anupam Mukhopadhyay of John Deere explored the road ahead for electrification technologies in the off-highway sector where the challenges and solutions differ from on-road vehicles.

While there are many challenges, the search for answers is already underway. Integer held an interactive session at the Integer Emissions Summit India, and when asked whether India’s 2030 e-mobility plan would be feasible, over 70% of the delegates (primarily from the automotive industry) thought that the government’s plan would not go ahead and that infrastructure will be the main obstacle Government policies could drive real change but that will take long-term commitment and financial investment. However, the industry is unlikely to follow without this catalyst and the eMobility vision may never get the head start that was promised in 2017.

It is clear, from speaking with experts at the Integer conference, that India is already carefully considering the most effective solutions. Should India even come close to the 2030 goal, it would push it beyond the ambitions of current Western governments who have adopted more measured proposals towards the ending of the internal combustion engine. The Indian government has presented the industry with an opportunity that is ambitious and transformative, but the next stage is to act on that word.

Brazil set to introduce Euro VI-equivalent standards by 2020/2022

By Ben Fielden, Senior Conference Manager at Integer Research

(Versão em português abaixo)

With India and China racing forward to implement Euro VI emission standards, IBAMA, the agency under Brazil’s Ministry of Environment, announced that it will seek to implement equivalent standards in 2020 for urban buses and 2022 for other heavy-duty vehicles. The announcement will likely be welcomed by an automotive industry that has been calling for greater global harmonisation, while the move to tighter emission standards reaffirms Brazil’s commitment to improving air quality.

Recently published documents on PROCONVE P8 from IBAMA (only available in Brazilian Portuguese) outlines standards very close to Euro VI, introduced across Europe back in 2013. These include in-service conformity limits, durability requirements at 160, 300, and 700,000km, WHTC (Worldwide Harmonized Transient Cycle) and NTE (Not to Exceed) testing, and OBD (On-board Diagnostics) limits, which will be introduced in two phases, with the first one matching the first step for buses and heavy-duty trucks, indicated above. Only the final limits, in 2023, will include restrictions on particle emissions, with the temporary phase allowing for monitoring.

A key differentiator between P8 and Euro VI will be the use of biodiesel blends, which is legally required nationwide in Brazil. The biodiesel content of the PROCONVE P8 reference fuel (used at certification tests) will be set at a 10% blend (B10), although this level is not currently available commercially. In contrast, the reference diesel specifications including in Euro VI standards included a 7% biodiesel blend.

When speaking to people within the industry, we have noticed that they are flagging biodiesel as a key issue in Brazil’s industry to achieve lower standards. Biodiesel was introduced because it decreases overall criteria pollutant (PM, THC, CO), however, it is noted that this comes at the expense of higher NOx emissions. A 2014 University of California – Riverside study found a “statistically significant increase of 3.6% for… B10-soy blend compared to… diesel fuel” in NOx emissions. The increase in NOx emissions was found to be greater in soy-based biodiesel than its animal-based counterpart. The 3.6% increase is significant but can be mitigated with aftertreatment systems. Meanwhile, research from the International Energy Agency – Advanced Motor Fuels, shows that at lower concentrations the effect of using biodiesel is marginal.

We understand that research has already been carried out by IBAMA, while further activities are to be conducted by the industry to understand how a B10 blend will impact Euro VI-level NOx emission limits. Some of these findings will be shared at Integer Emissions Summit & ARLA 32 Forum Brazil 2019 in São Paulo on February 12-13, 2019, and we expect biodiesel to be a key aspect of the discussions on how to achieve lower emissions by 2020/22.

Brasil em vias de implementar padrões de emissões Euro VI em 2020/2022

Por Ben Fielden, Gerente de Eventos Sênior, Integer Research

Com a Índia e a China avançando para a implementação dos padrões de emissão Euro VI, o IBAMA, agência do Ministério do Meio Ambiente do Brasil, anunciou que padrões equivalentes serão implementados, começando em 2020 para os ônibus urbanos e em 2022 para os outros veículos pesados. O anúncio provavelmente será bem recebido por parte da indústria automotiva, que vem esperando atingir uma maior harmonização, e a adoção de padrões de emissão mais rígidos reafirma o compromisso do Brasil com relação à melhoria da qualidade do ar.

Documentos recentemente publicados sobre o PROCONVE P8 do IBAMA descrevem padrões muito próximos do Euro VI, que estão em vigor em toda a União Europeia em 2013. Além de limites de emissões 80% menores que no P7, atualmente obrigatório no Brasil, esta nova norma inclui limites de conformidade em serviço, requisitos de durabilidade a 160, 300 e 700.000 km, o ciclo de testes WHTC (Worldwide Harmonized Transient Cycle), e exigências NTE (Not to Exceed). Limites de emissões detectados nos sistemas OBD (On-board Diagnostics) serão introduzidos em duas fases, sendo que a primeira corresponderá aos anos indicados acima (2020 para ônibus, 2022 para caminhões), em 2023 os OBDs passarão a avaliar também as emissões de material particulado, sendo o monitoramento permitido na fase inicial.

Um diferencial importante entre o P8 e o Euro VI será o uso de misturas de biodiesel, que é legalmente obrigatório no Brasil. Um teor de biodiesel de 10% será utilizado no combustível de referência (usado em testes de certificação), embora este nível não esteja ainda disponível comercialmente. Em contraste, as especificações do diesel de referência na Europa limitam o uso de biodiesel em 7% da mistura.

Após conversar com as pessoas dentro do setor, percebemos que eles estão sinalizando o biodiesel como uma questão-chave na indústria brasileira para atingir padrões mais baixos. O biodiesel diminui emissões de diversos poluentes (PM, THC, CO), no entanto, aumenta levemente as emissões de NOx, um dos principais alvos da norma Euro VI. Um estudo de 2014 da Universidade da Califórnia – Riverside encontrou um “aumento estatisticamente significante de 3,6% para… mistura de B10-soja comparada ao… combustível diesel” em emissões de NOx. O aumento nas emissões de NOx foi maior no biodiesel à base de soja do que em biodiesel de matéria-prima animal. O aumento de 3,6% é significativo, mas pode ser mitigado com sistemas de pós-tratamento. Enquanto isso, pesquisas da Agência Internacional de Energia – Advanced Motor Fuels, mostram que em concentrações mais baixas o efeito do uso de biodiesel é desprezível.

A indústria automotiva espera ter tempo para realizar pesquisas que demonstrem o impacto de uma mistura B10 nos limites de emissões de NOx no Euro VI. Algumas dessas descobertas serão compartilhadas no Integer Emissions Summit Brasil 2019, em São Paulo, de 12 a 13 de fevereiro de 2019, e o tema do biodiesel será um aspecto fundamental das discussões sobre como implementar o PROCONVE P8 com sucesso em 2020/22.

 

The complex global automotive grade urea market – understand the finer details to see the bigger picture

By Alex Wood, Analyst and Editor of The Global Automotive Grade Urea (AGU) Forecast Service, Integer Research

We estimate that 2.77 million tonnes of automotive grade urea (AGU) were consumed globally over 2017, and we forecast that the market will grow on average by 12% year-on-year over the next ten years. This growth will be mainly driven by Europe, North America, China and Latin America, with both Europe and North America looking largely to domestic AGU production to meet AdBlue®/DEF demand. North America will still import AGU, but imports are expected to be limited to the East and West Coasts, away from the domestic producers that are primarily in the Midwest region.

China and Russia are forecast to remain net exporters of AGU. Volumes from China will still be driven by rising demand from Asia Pacific countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, while Russia is in a good position to supply Latin America, particularly Brazil. Following the steep decline in production at its domestic AGU plants over the last two years, we expect Brazil to rely entirely on AGU imports from 2019 (although these plants could come back into play in a few years’ time).

The unique circumstances of some countries come into play when analysing the overall AGU supply and trade picture. Take India for example, there is no domestic AGU production in India because the Indian government forbids production of urea for non-agricultural use.  The market therefore relies entirely on AGU imports to meet demand, and we forecast that this will continue to be case over the next ten years. The Indian government has ambitious plans to introduce its most stringent legislation yet, BS VI by 2020, which will further drive demand for SCR, and therefore AUS 32 and AGU, and contribute to India becoming one of the biggest importers of AGU by 2024.

We also estimate that 18% of the AGU consumed in 2017 was traded between countries (not including volumes sent between European countries and directly between the US and Canada), and we forecast that the traded volumes of AGU will grow by 16% year-on-year over the next ten years to 2.3 million tonnes in 2028. The main importing regions will be North America, Latin America and India.

Each region around the world has its own set of unique AGU market supply, trade and demand circumstances making the global AGU market a tricky one to follow if you don’t have access to the right analysis.

This is why we update our Global Automotive Grade Urea Forecast Service on a quarterly basis. This report drills down into AGU supply, demand, trade and pricing to reflect the consequences these dynamics have on the production of AGU and therefore AUS 32 worldwide. Subscribers gain invaluable insights into the competitive landscape and can put the report to practical use to find alternative sources of high quality AGU at lower prices. To see a typical table of contents from the report, click here.

If you have any questions about the global AGU market, or to find out more about The Global Automotive Grade Urea Forecast Service, email publications@integer-research.com or call us on +44 20 7503 1265, we’d be happy to talk you through our research.

More background on AGU…

OEMs have been using Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) aftertreatment systems to meet NOx standards since the implementation of Euro IV in Europe and EPA 2010 in North America. Over the years, more and more countries have enforced emissions standards stringent enough to require the use of SCR systems, so it comes as no surprise that global SCR sales are expected to rise over the next ten years.

SCR technology requires AUS 32 to operate and therefore the demand for AUS 32 rises as SCR adoption becomes more widespread. Also known as AdBlue®, DEF or ARLA 32 – AUS 32 is an aqueous solution that is produced by mixing automotive grade urea (AGU) and deionized water to a urea concentration of 32.5wt%. It’s a high-quality urea solution defined by ISO 22241-1.

As more AUS 32 is required in line with increased SCR use, the spotlight lands firmly on the AGU market, the production of which is relied upon to meet rising AUS 32 demand.

Moving up a gear – Europe’s evolving AdBlue® market gets Integer’s most rigorous analysis treatment yet

By Fabricio Cardoso, Research Manager & Alex Wood, Analyst at Integer Research

The European AdBlue market has developed enormously since 2006 when we first began to analyse it. In the first years, the use of SCR was exclusive to the larger commercial vehicles, and truck manufacturers could choose between SCR or EGR to meet NOx standards. SCR would be beneficial in terms of fuel consumption, but brought the inconvenience of adding AdBlue, a urea solution which was, at the time, not available everywhere.

Fast-forward twelve years to today, and the situation is very different. There are over 100 production points across Europe, 500 distributors and fleet suppliers, and more than 8,500 locations distributing AdBlue at the pump. These companies, spread on the map, are supplying not only commercial vehicles (the totality of Euro VI diesel trucks and buses need AdBlue) but also a range of agricultural, construction and material handling machinery and, more recently, diesel passenger cars.

This widening range of AdBlue customers brought significant changes to the marketplace in terms of logistics, which plays an increasingly important role, and getting the best urea supply became a key contributor to success in this more competitive-than-ever environment.

As the market has changed, so has our approach to analysing it, because with rapid development comes the need for more rigorous and comprehensive evaluation. Our latest solution to uncovering vital trends, challenges and opportunities comes in the form of The European SCR & AdBlue Forecast Service, 2018/19 edition.

This new update looks at current AdBlue demand by segment, country and market channel. A key consideration is that packaged product became a suitable option for cars and vans, whereas the number of commercial vehicle fleets with dedicated storage tanks keeps growing, increasing the demand for bulk AdBlue.

The country analysis is another important consideration in this year’s edition. Up until last year, our models looked at sales of SCR-equipped trucks, buses, cars, vans and machinery in the EU to forecast AdBlue consumption based on the current European market size as a whole. But by regularly speaking to market players we noted that different markets were developing at different paces across the region. For instance, in Germany, the growth in the SCR fleet has been much smaller, as Euro IV sales were relatively high, and new truck sales have been replacing the first SCR-equipped trucks. In contrast, in Spain, sales of Euro IV and V trucks were very low due to the 2008 economic crisis, and current Euro VI, SCR-equipped trucks are primarily replacing older, non-SCR trucks.

These differences have led us to revamp our calculations and assess each country and segment separately, from vehicle sales to the share of alternative powertrain, from travelled distances to expected AdBlue dosing rates. We have been discussing and validating our results with key market players, and in doing so, have produced a report that we believe truly reflects the reality of AdBlue market dynamics across Europe.

For more information about The European SCR & AdBlue Forecast Service and how this new edition could help you move forward faster in today’s European AdBlue market, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. Email publications@integer-research.com, or call us on +44 20 7503 1265 – we’d be happy to talk you through our research.

See the report Table of Contents here >>

FindAdBlue roadshow highlights the opportunities in store for fuel retailers

Event summary by Rosalie Winnik, FindAdBlue Website Manager at Integer Research

Integer Research and FindAdBlue held the FindAdBlue Fuel Retailers Seminar roadshow, which took place in May and June 2018 in Milan, Paris, Madrid and Brussels.

The seminars followed on from a successful one-day seminar in London last November, and once again proved to be extremely effective and beneficial to the fuel retailers who attended. We were delighted to see over 100 fuel retail executives and filling station owners attending the four events.

The seminars were an initiative of Integer Research’s AdBlue locator website, FindAdBlue.com. This is the only independent locator website for AdBlue pumps in Europe. Launched in 2005, it was relaunched in April this year with the support of OEMs Audi, Mercedes, Opel and VW, as well as Bosch and Shell, to help diesel passenger car drivers find the most convenient way to fill up their AdBlue tank.

All four seminars were supported by diamond sponsor Yara, the world’s largest producer of AdBlue, and began with a presentation from Fabricio Cardoso, Research Manager at Integer Research, who discussed the AdBlue market for passenger cars and light duty vehicles, and the opportunities and challengers for fuel retailers. Representatives from Yara spoke at all four seminars, presenting the supply options available for the refilling of AdBlue in passenger cars in each market.

We also heard from different European OEMs on the use of SCR technology in passenger cars, their strategy regarding diesel in the medium term, and the upcoming Euro 6d emissions legislation, with VW presenting in Milan and Brussels, Renault in Paris, and SEAT in Madrid.

There were presentations from AdBlue equipment producers, Storage Partners Piusi and GreenChem. These equipment producers displayed several options available for fuel retailers to offer AdBlue at filling stations.

The final seminar, which took place in Brussels, was followed by an AdBlue filling demonstration, with AdBlue supplied by Yara and equipment supplied by Piusi, Storage Partners, Gilbarco and GreenChem. Euro 6 cars requiring AdBlue from VW, Mercedes, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA and Opel were available for the demonstration, which provided an excellent opportunity for the fuel retailers to see some AdBlue equipment in action.

The delegates were made up of both large fuel retailers from international oil companies and large supermarket brands, to small and independent filling station operators. There were plenty of networking opportunities, with several breaks built into the agenda.

If you are a fuel retailer interested in having your AdBlue locations listed on FindAdBlue.com, please email Rosalie Winnik, FindAdBlue Manager, at rosalie.winnik@integer-research.com.